lithium: reserves, use, future demand and price

A few weeks ago, France\'s environment minister, Nicolas huolot, announced that it would stop production of gasoline and diesel cars by 2040.
Last week, British environment minister Michael Gove followed suit on behalf of Britain.
At present, the on of electric vehicles relies on lithium-ion batteries
This clearly raises questions about the supply of lithium (Li)
Fortunately, there was a full report on the subject in my mailbox last week.
Li-reporting raw material requirements
Dr. P\'s Ion battery industryKauranen [1]
It can be found online, in this article I want to provide a simple and partial summary of the report while adding information from other sources.
Dr. Kauranen\'s May 2017 report appears to be a comprehensive and professional analysis.
The organizer is strategy inen Tutkimus of the Finnish Academy of Sciences.
However, I was a little disturbed by some inconsistency.
For example, the thousand-bit separator is sometimes a \", sometimes a \".
\"Sometimes there is nothing, which is a sign of sloppy editing.
The unit used is ton, which means Imperial ton in English, but I assume it is metric ton.
This made me have to cross check a lot of numbers to find out that there is a big scope on the network --based articles.
For example, Wikipedia records Global Lithium production at 600,000 tons per year, while Dr. Kauranen\'s data is 32 tons.
I think 500 tons/a means 32,500 tons per year.
Cross-checking with other sources shows that Dr. Kauranen\'s figures reflect reality. Li-
The lithium-ion battery has a functional portable electronic revolution because for any given size (
Volume and/or mass)
They are able to store more energy than their peers.
The table below for this source shows that the energy density provided by lithium ion is 4 to 5 times that of Pb-
The nearest practical competitor acid battery.
This means that the convenient mileage of electric vehicles is 150 miles, while Pb-acid.
The initial cost may be 5 to 10 times higher, but Li ion offers more advantages such as higher cycle rate, deeper discharge of constant performance, and operating range under higher ambient temperature conditions
Figure 1 Comparison of operation performance of Li-ion and Pb-acid batteries.
Line 2 and Line 4 are the key.
Increase in energy density (Wh/kg, line 2)
Make electric vehicles feasible at the same time as the cost increases (line 4)
Pressed down by the advantages of Line 2, at least as long as the Li-ion EVs exist.
Another important fact at this point is that most lithium-ion batteries today use Li-cobalt (Co)
Therefore, the availability of compounds in the electrolyte is as important as that of Co.
There are substitutes for Co such as manganese (Mn)
This provides poor performance, but if Co availability (price)
Proved to be a limiting factor (see below).
James Stafford of oil prices
Com provided a useful review a year ago which included this chart (Figure 2)
This shows the huge advantage of lithium battery over competitor technology.
Figure 2 energy density of various Li-
Compared with recent peers, ion battery technologylead-
Acid and nickel and cadmium. X-axis Watt-
Hour per liter (volume)and Y-axis Watt-Hours per Kg (mass).
Lithium is an alkaline metal (
Single positive charge)
And will share the chemical properties with sodium (Na)and potassium (K).
This is why one of the main sources of Li is the brines that naturally exist in porous rocks.
Li with an atomic weight of 7 is the third light element after hydrogen (weight=1)and helium (weight = 4)
It\'s all gas.
Lithium is a metal that clearly places it in a \"special\" chemical category.
Li is mined from rocks containing lithium-pyroxene minerals (a Li pyroxene)
Or from British people rich in Li. Figure 3 (from here)
Displays the global status of the game.
According to the National and ore symbiosis, global Li production: about 2008 of rock and salt water.
We see that brines account for about 50% of global supply (~2008)
Li brines is mainly in the southern United States.
Both China and the United States have iron ore and rock mines.
Rock and Roll dominates elsewhere, especially in Australia, a major producer.
Table 1 in figure 4.
Kauranen reported that Li\'s output was 32,500 tons/year and its reserves were 14 million tons, providing nominal reserves exceeding the output (ROP)
The figure for 431 is calculated by today\'s consumption rate.
There is clearly no immediate concern about the availability of Li resources.
Of course, the consumption rate is expected to increase significantly, so the rope figure may decline rapidly.
However, the reserve and resource base will also grow, and I don\'t think there will be much change in rope\'s numbers in 50 years.
Alternative sources (Mohr et al. )
It is estimated that Li resources are between 19 and 55 million tons, with an optimal estimate of 24 million tons.
Data from Kauranen overlap with this range. Mohr et al.
The estimated annual output of the order is 26,000 tons, approximately 2011 tons, which again broadly validates the number of Kauranen.
An important observation in Figure 4 is that using the reserve chart of 7, the drop chart of Co is 72 years.
1 million tons.
As a result, the supply of Co is shorter than that of Li by face value, but using the resource figure of 0. 12 billion tons, the mechanical drilling speed rises to 1,200 years.
There\'s nothing to worry about.
If there may be some reason to worry about the safety of Co. Supply
Li\'s sources are diverse.
Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, China and Australia
Although co-supply is dominated by Congo (Kim), which has a long history of geopolitical turmoil.
Figure 4 shows that the battery consumes 35% of the global Li and 42% of the Global Co production.
Finally, Figure 4 shows that the recovery rate of Co is 68%, while the recovery rate of Li is only 1%.
I don\'t understand why Lee\'s recovery rate is so low, and improving this will obviously have a significant impact on future supply and price forecasts.
Figure 5 Table 2 shows that China is Li-
32 ion battery production.
4% of the global market.
There are currently seven in the United States. 3% and EU 3.
5% market share using column 1 figures (Figure 5)--i. e.
Fully commissioned factory.
These devices are MWh, reflecting the number of storage devices manufactured each year.
To provide some background, the entry-level Tesla Model S has a 75kWh battery pack.
The global output of 51,549 megawatt hours per year is enough to power Tesla Model S\'s 687,320 new cars per year. Column 5 (the Total)
In figure 5, it is actually the sum of columns 1 to 3.
If we assume that the announced capacity will increase (
The 35,000 figure is the Gigabit plant Tesla plans to put into production this year)
With a total global capacity of 124,666 MWh, China will have 42% MWh, the US will have 32% MWh, and the EU will have 1 KW MWh. % Of global Li-4
Ion manufacturing capability.
Europe\'s ambition to lead 100% electric vehicles in 22 years does not match the ambition to build or plan a battery manufacturing plant.
Figure 6 this figure combines Tables 3 and 4 in ref 1 to summarize Li-
Ion batteries were used in 2016. Figure 6 (Tables 3 and 4)summarises Li-
I want to use an ion battery in 2016.
It is worth noting that China deployed 94,000 ebus in 2016 and consumed 21.
6 GWh of battery.
Total battery capacity consumption 73.
7 GWh suggest columns 2 and 3 in figure 5 (data for 2015)
2016 in the stream.
Columns 1 to 3 total 76. 3 GWh.
Summary Tables 3 and 4 (Figure 6)using the 73.
Based on GWh total: The eBus numbers in China are eye-popping.
Electric vehicles (
Electric vehicles excluding eBus
Currently 34.
1%, this figure looks like a big increase.
However, we need to recall that the battery consumes 35% of the total lithium output, so the electric vehicle battery currently accounts for only 12% of the total lithium supply.
At present, there is no fixed battery storage in the statistics, probably because these numbers are still too low (Figure 8).
Figure 7 Table 11 in reference 1.
Dr. Kauranen provides a series of future consumption scenarios that are not simple, but the possible scenarios are outlined in this table and in figure 8.
Figure 4 shows that the current annual output of lithium batteries is 32,500 tons, and the battery output is 35% tons, equivalent to 11,375 tons. Figure 7 (above)
This figure is expected to grow to 103,200 tons by 2025, resulting in a 9-fold increase in battery demand for Li.
However, since the battery is not the only source of demand, this is equivalent to 3.
Global Li demand will grow eight times in the next eight years (Figure 7).
A screenshot of 4a in figure 8 ref 1 shows the future growth of Li demand. The Y-
The shaft is tons per year.
While other uses remain unchanged at 20,700 tons per year, the use of consumer electronics by 2025 is almost double that of 4,300 tons to 7,200 tons per year.
But the massive expansion comes from 7,500 of electric vehicles (2016)
It will reach 80,000 tons per year by 2025.
In the current cultural environment, fixed storage is 16,000 tons per year from nothing, which looks like a shortage. estimate.
Figure 8 shows the expected source of such demand growth.
The pursuit of the Paris agreement by the French and British governments and recent initiatives will certainly support the situation.
But is it possible for global supply to quadruple in such a short period of time?
James Stafford wrote in Zero Hedge: this makes it difficult for me to find authoritative sources of historical Li prices, and prices in different chemical forms have a tendency to be quoted (e. g.
Lithium and lithium carbonate)
In different units
This chart by James Stafford seems to be as good as any one.
Figure 9 the current lithium carbonate price obtained through James Stafford and the zero hedging price of li2co2 per metric ton of $14,000 were converted into $74,060 per metric ton of metal in early 2016. (
Number in units of circular atomic mass: Li = 7, C = 12, O = 16, li2co = 74, li2co/LiO2 = 74/14 = 5.
29*14,000 = 74,060
Sources looking for alpha said: This indicates that the price increase has cooled for the time being.
Prices have doubled since the end of 2015, and miners will start working to put existing resources into production and explore new ones.
Past experience tells us that this cycle usually ends with tears for miners and investors, but will eventually benefit consumers by winning at low prices and competitive prices.
Nevertheless, the projected demand growth is huge and supply may not keep up with demand in the coming years, resulting in price fluctuations and sharp increases.
Price of goods (Li and Co)
There will be a cold wind in the electric car industry that has just started.
If the reader has any hot investment tips, please share them in the comments
Battery manufacturers, battery technology companies, Li and Co miners, etc.