lithium phosphate a lead acid replacement

In the past five years, lead-acid batteries such as car batteries, the battery market for the first time began to appear some serious competition.
The lithium phosphate battery has arrived at the scene.
After years of development, they have now tried, tested and prepared to replace their lead --
Alternative to acid.
It\'s not surprising when you compare lithium phosphate and lead acid batteries side by side (See table below).
In addition to competing with lead-acid batteries, lithium phosphate companies are opening up new markets for themselves for products in harsh environments where lead-acid batteries do not perform well.
As a result, an excellent opportunity to invest in companies that may take a large share of the lead-acid battery market has arrived, with global industry analysts estimating the market to be $15.
5 billion to 2015.
Further signs of the arrival of lithium phosphate as a lead-acid replacement are that several industry giants are now entering the lithium phosphate market.
On December 2011, LG and SudChemie announced that they had teamed up to build a factory in South Korea with an annual output of 2,500 tons of lithium.
BASF, a German conglomerate, signed a
Term license agreement for the production and sale of lithium phosphate.
Earlier in the lithium phosphate market was Sony, which is selling a series of lithium phosphate batteries for the back.
Storage and power tools.
I believe that in the next five years, we should see lithium as an industry standard, so the growth curve may be huge.
A microcosm of the market where progress is being made is the medical cart business.
The medical trolley you see in each hospital room usually has a lead acid battery at the bottom of the trolley.
Five years ago, the manufacturer of medical carts saw the battery as a commodity and just wanted to buy it at the lowest price.
Now, using the total cost of ownership analysis, medical cart manufacturers can see savings in the use of lithium batteries, which can be charged more than 3,000 times for 10 years, contrary to lead-acid batteries that can only charge 150 to 300 times and die after two years.
Sometimes these carts are idle, and if there is a lead-acid battery in the trolley, the battery will run out in a few months.
With a lithium-ion battery and its minimum discharge rate, the idle trolley will still be charged 99%.
By switching to lithium phosphate batteries, the same medical vehicle is now more efficient, reliable, lightweight and eco-friendly.
So we began to see medical vehicles running with lithium phosphate batteries in the hospital room.
Examples like this are already well known and we can expect lithium to spread to other markets.
I think the medical cart was the first domino to fall.
This summer, I will pay close attention to the activities of lead-acid battery companies such as Johnson Control (NYSE:JCI)and Exide (XIDE).
Will lead-acid executives and sales reps take action? Will they have extensive customer contact with lithium phosphate, which is growing faster?
I have heard that in the process of competing for market share, lithium phosphate is targeting the employees of its competitors.
When they can send existing sales reps to sell better batteries, why send a new sales rep to sell new batteries.
Aware of the threat to its market, JCI or XIDE may acquire a lithium phosphate company in order to obtain technology and patents, which is also entirely reasonable.
The threat to them is very real!
I \'ve isolated two companies that trade on Nasdaq and they have core capabilities in lithium battery production and basement trading.
These two companies are A123 (AONE)
And the price of technology (VLNC).
Here\'s what I think of these companies in the near future: A123 went public in 2009 and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs made an IPO with GE\'s financial support (NYSE:GE)(a top 3 holder)
And the support of the Obama administration.
Their shares began trading for $13.
$50 per share and $28 per share.
Their market value reached $3 billion.
It has been gaining the attention of all the media, the support of the government and the support of institutional investors who focus on the automotive battery market, as well as deals with BMW, GM, Geely, Fisk motors, there are only a few examples by car and McLaren.
Despite their many contracts, the company\'s share price fell sharply.
The company has made major production mistakes, costs more than $50 million, and raised major concerns about the company\'s chances of survival.
As a result, it recently raised $50 million through convertible notes (
6% interest and paid bi-
Weekly by cash or stock)
With the signing of the warrants, the company has announced that it is seeking many other ways to raise more money.
An analyst at Deqi predicted that A123 would need to add $0. 4 billion to the next few months of the setsfield decree, while another analyst predicted that it would need to add $75 million to the fourth quarter.
From anyone\'s point of view, this is a daunting task, so the question remains, how will it raise funds and how much will it dilute to shareholders?
The main problem with A123 may be their model of producing batteries in the United States.
After getting a lot of loans, it set up production facilities in Michigan (
About $0. 25 billion)from the U. S. government.
Most of the world\'s battery production is done in China, and looking at the financial situation of a123, it may not be long before it will be forced to squeeze out savings from the Michigan factory, or close the factory, overseas. A123 loses $35-
$50 million per quarter with a negative gross profit margin of $350
The break-even run rate of $0. 4 billion.
Far from last quarter\'s $11 million and next quarter\'s $20 million.
In addition to improving their financial position, it also needs to prove that it can handle large production ramps without accidents and retain customers to provide them with ramps.
The successful increase in the order increase will push the stock to $2-
$3 over the next 12 years
Raise funds in a reasonable way for 18 months.
On the other hand, failure to raise funds, failure to produce reliable batteries or customer abandonment batteries will result in the risk of bankruptcy and restructuring of the company.
A manufacturer of lithium phosphate batteries that you may not know because it has been keeping away from media attention and seeing institutional investors participate in limited price technology.
Founded by billionaire Carl Berg.
For 22 years, he has provided more than 50% of the company\'s cash needs.
Four to five years ago, when he thought Valence did have the right to a lithium phosphate patent and the best production technology, he consciously decided to run a lean company.
In addition to funding tile prices, he also funded an electric truck company in EVI, California that specializes in Watt-price batteries.
He is also on the board of Via Motors, which is producing a GM Chevrolet pick-
Fully electric trucks.
Berg joined the board and now has 40%.
After he saved the company from extinction with a $ 50% investment, 5 million of the company.
Via is currently using the A123 battery, but many are waiting to see if VIA\'s founder and CEO Kraig highginson is paying off Berg\'s favor by switching to the price battery.
I think one of the reasons A123 may be moving their production facilities overseas is that the situation in VLNC in 2003 is very similar to that in A123.
In their case, Valence has their manufacturing facilities in Northern Ireland (
After getting huge tax benefits)
But after rising costs, the company moved production facilities to China.
This effort has produced dividends as it has reduced its losses from $38 million a year in 2003 to $8-
$9 million today
In addition, gross profit margin rose from 0% to 22%, while revenue rose from $2 million to $44 million during the same period.
As a result, the company\'s breakeven has increased from $0. 35 billion a year to $70 million a year.
I think this shift is a clear sign that a company is striving for excellence and is determined to make their business model profitable as soon as possible.
I believe Valence will keep one or two customers away from breakeven cash flow.
You can\'t control the market, but you can control your operations.
In addition to controlling the operating price of the company, from more and more big customers to small customers, we have been busy queuing up for future revenue sources.
Landing UPS on an electric truck in the commercial fleet world EVI (100 truck order), Frito Lay (10 trucks)and PG&E.
At March, I had the opportunity to visit EVI at the card show and I can tell you that I witnessed Navistar, FCCC and others impressed by the performance of the truck on the test drive.
I do not rule out future partnerships as both large truck shipping OEMs are behind 8 balls for electric vehicles (EV)push.
This may be the reason why FCCC did not comment on their 3,000 electric truck order, which said it would start shipping no later than 2012 in the third quarter.
In France, Valence provides Renault with batteries through Valence\'s supply agreement with PVI.
PVI has established a partnership with Renault to develop and manufacture commercial electric vehicles, including electric buses under the Gepebus brand and trucks under the Renault truck brand.
Recently, Yuantai has become a customer\'s price of 10% (Last 2 quarters)
They have since updated their supply agreement with Valence.
I personally think that this event has a lot of revenue potential in PVI/Renault because it believes that the initial demand is increasing because the truck model with the price battery it sells is from 2.
Another long-term customer is Segway, which has been powering this popular personal transport vehicle since 2006.
I believe Segway will update or temporarily use the brand new transporter in the coming months.
Two weeks ago, Valence signed an agreement with Enovate to supply lithium phosphate batteries (
Next generation battery)
Medical cart.
I believe the price of Enovate is $4
After 12 months, the annual operating speed of $6 million.
This will be the fourth medical Cart Company to join existing customers Rubbermaid and Howard medical.
The management is actively looking for the remaining competitors in this market and I am sure it will be landing on them soon.
It may be very exciting for Valence in the near future.
The price has been produced with Wrightbus and Siemens for the past three years.
The master of the road is a new electric London double layerdecker bus.
There are currently eight such buses driving on the streets of London, as the three companies have solved all the problems before starting mass production.
What excites me so much is that these mayors are a campaign issue in the recent mayoral elections.
Mayor Boris Johnson was re-elected.
The May 3, 2012 election was the main supporter of the buses, and he promised to have 600 Routemasters on the streets of London in four years.
I believe this will happen soon, so we can see the potential 20-
Wrightbus\'s $30 million contract.
With 2012 Olympic Games in London about to begin, London will be the focus of the world, and Routemaster will also be the focus.
I also think that in the United States, dozens of cities and private bus companies are pursuing Wrightbus. K.
Make an electric bus for them.
The platform of Routemaster is interchanged, so it can be easily designed for other types of buses.
I believe the Street has not yet taken into account the ramp of Wrightbus and the impact of their first push of prices to break even in 22 years
The history of the next six to nine months.
One of the key assets that Valence has been neglected and undervalued is its intellectual property (NYSE:IP).
In today\'s market, companies with intellectual property rights are much more valuable than they were two years ago.
Google\'s acquisition of Motorola\'s patents triggered a wave of patent portfolios.
After Motorola, Vringo (VRNG)popped from $1-
There are rumors that they have a huge portfolio of search patents, which may cost billions of dollars from Google (NASDAQ:GOOG)or Yahoo (YHOO). Interdigital (NASDAQ:IDCC)
Bid from $40-
There are rumors that someone will buy $70 for their patent portfolio--Intel (NASDAQ:INTL)
They recently acquired a small number of patents for $0. 374 billion.
Even sports research (RIMM)
There are rumors that this is a
Their patent candidate.
Valence may be next: Valence has recently completed eight years of litigation.
As a result of this lawsuit, I think Valence has a bullet-proof patent portfolio in two key areas: first, in their carbon thermal reduction process, they say it\'s the cheapest and most profitable way to make lithium phosphate.
I believe that once large businesses start producing lithium phosphate, it will be difficult for them to bypass Valence\'s core process and eventually a licensing and royalty agreement will be signed.
Secondly, drawing lessons from their patent experience with lithium phosphate, Valence deliberately built an iron wall around vanadium-
Their next generation of technology-
Avoid any potential holes in their defense.
Valence\'s CEO, Bob Kanode, said at a recent DB conference that Valence has 301 patents (U. S.
: 135, foreign countries: 166)
167 patent applications (U. S.
: 30, foreign countries: 137).
In lithium phosphate, it has the second largest number of patents to Sony.
He also confirmed that the company is seeking joint ventures and licensing deals with a number of companies including China/Asia.
The CEO must know something because they have completed their legal issues in 30 days.
I think investors are happy with the company because it\'s easy to be the next VRNG to start at $0. 68 to $5.
A few days later, if LG, Sony, BASF, Samsung or Johnson Controls decide it\'s time to bet on the price.
As you can see, with LG, Sony and BASF announcing their financial support for this once-blurred chemical reaction, lithium phosphate is rapidly becoming a standard.
Five years ago, nobody knew about lithium-
Ion oxide battery (
Laptop/mobile phone)
There is also a lithium battery or the advantage of replacing lead acid with phosphate.
All of this has changed, and I believe that in the $15 billion lead-acid market, phosphate will occupy a large part, but more importantly, they will create a huge electric vehicle market in the next 10 years, which may be 3 to 5 times larger than lead acid.
All in all, this is the story of the two companies: A123 just started from $0. 85 to $1.
There is news that they have new battery technology so I tend to wait and see where the stock is settled and how they can raise money and handle production slopes for the next two quarters before they start the position.
On the other hand, more than 60,000 electric trucks, buses, commercial vehicles, scooters, motorcycles and individual motor vehicles powered by varance have been on the road since 2005.
After the recent signing of a new customer, Valence seems to be ready for the break-even of cash flow (Enovate)
To resolve expensive lawsuits while strengthening their patent portfolio (
Reduce the cost ~ $3mm/lower breakeven)
Through supply agreements updated with PVI/Renault, potential revenue has grown significantly.
In addition, the stock of the company is in very safe hands (
Berg holds 85 million of 0. 17 billion shares issued)
Short-term interest is 14 million shares or 31 days.
A big order, a non
Dilution or reasonable dilution of equity financing (10-
20 million ensure the road to break even)
Or their patent joint venture will send shares to a four-year high.
Unlike A123, Valence took their medication in 2003 and now deserves the attention of hundreds of institutional investors who see their conservatism as a weakness.
You decide where your lithium phosphate replacement is.
Disclosure: I am Dragon VLNC.