Solar photovoltaic (pv) net news: on May 9, longji website shows monocrystalline silicon chip reduction 0 again. 15 yuan/piece. M6 wafers to 2. 77 yuan/piece ( 2 before pricing. 92 yuan/piece) Silicon chip, G1 to 2. 68 yuan/piece ( Before pricing of 2. 83 yuan/piece) 。
the silicon material price from 66 yuan to 62 yuan/kg/kg, after the price cut, China solar energy network, longji monocrystalline silicon slice of gross margin is still more than 30%, higher than the industry average, photovoltaic industry chain profitability is still the best.
earnings estimates, since before pricing silicon material price from 66 yuan/kg to 62 yuan/kg, solar photovoltaic (pv) network, considering silicon materials to bring down the cost of 0. 5 yuan/piece, the silicon actual price is only 0. 1 yuan per piece. Portal company shipment to the G1 products, solar energy, we do with G1 product price earnings estimates, longji monocrystalline silicon slice of gross margin was 33% after the price, profit still maintain a high level. Is a drop in the Q1, but it is still far above competitors and other industry chain link.
the price will promote further optimized pattern: short-term price trades. the leading benefit from structure optimization, and cost advantage to ensure profitability. Backward production capacity clearing price, on the one hand, industry, at the same time because of leading enterprises excellent cost advantage of profit is still in a reasonable level. End, on the other hand, the price to components, system cost reduction can inspire new power.
demand inflection point is clear: the Q2 630 domestic centralized grid rob, Q3 overseas demand recovery, global demand upward inflection point. Leading because of capacity and cost advantages, industry falls capacity utilization and the profit ability, still can guarantee industry up elastic recovery performance.
long-term logic is still clear: long-term industry core driving force for the declining cost + permeability ascend space is large, the photovoltaic (pv) is the most competitive source of energy. Photovoltaic global account for only 3%, the current technology of iteration costs fell, demand has huge potential.
performance point of view: Q1 company silicon single net zero. 8 yuan/piece, the current 0. 56 yuan/piece; Q1 component single tile net zero. 27 yuan/W, the current 0. 8 yuan/W; We according to the year of silicon, components, average unit net profit of 0 respectively. 39 yuan/piece, 0. 8 yuan/W calculation, the company performance baseline % in 2020. Domestic policy, overseas demand boom continues, global demand 140 gw in 2020, compared with + 20%.
according to Solarzoom data show that in March 2020, the monthly export component of size 7. Year-on-year + 49 gigawatts (gw), 19. 49%, from 164. 1-7% Accumulative total export scale 14 March. 8 gw, solar energy, year-on-year - 0. Accounted for 83%, 8%, of which the single crystal silicon amount year-on-year 3% increased.
silicon: price stability. There are 630 domestic demand, monocrystalline silicon chip needs to support, short-term price stability. Polycrystalline prices are still to be seen India doors release time.
component: the price down. Strong domestic demand, but overseas during the window period, the component prices fall, and G1 / M6 price gap is not obvious.
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this paper statistics the September to today issued a total of 2. 85 gw pv power plant EPC and 1. 9 gw component bid opening information. Among them, the EPC project owner units is given priority to with soe/state, this also reflected from the side, China solar power network, in project bidding and parity, the state-owned enterprises have become the absolute main force. Specifically, CGNPC in development of 410 mw, 603 mw, guangzhou energy saving 220 mw, 345 mw, jin can group the people vote for 200 mw, 190 mw hubei energy group, huaneng power 180 mw