Cat really tough photovoltaic domestic market in 2020 or 2019 will complete 50 gw of installed

Cicc recently published research report, said the photovoltaic industry has very strong cycle properties, especially the price decline will bring rapid rebound in demand.

cicc argues that 5 - after prices fell Eight months later, photovoltaic industry will appear rebound, rebound and time faster, and negative correlation with prices.

so, what are the characteristics of the photovoltaic industry cycle, how to seize the reversal of the solar cycle?

prices lead to global demand rebound research thinks, the component prices is a growing demand rebound elasticity, photovoltaic parity on the Internet, as in the past five years more and more overseas gw level market began, in 2015 only six, China solar power network, and in 2019 reached 20.

the market launch of preconditions, there are three main one is the policy of node, 2 it is project space, three is affordable access to the Internet.

according to the linkage of the photovoltaic prices and demand, changes in its cycle can be divided into four quadrants: demand growth impetus price growth; Demand growth is slowing price smoothly; Demand growth rate of less than capacity increase prices; Bring prices steady demand picks up.

cicc argues that prices into the plateau is often cycle starting point of the signal, and the market is expected to pessimistic and lower prices for previous earnings and valuation of the industry for the overhaul, make industry have the foundation of the bottom.

requirements or better than expected next year

at present, due to both domestic and overseas demand growth slowing, China solar power network, the forecast for next year's demand is more pessimistic.

but the research report suggests that next year the domestic market at the same time basically meet the three preconditions of high growth markets, and with the new annual subsidy policy in the ground at the end of this year, coupled with the legacy of around 62 gw project reserves this year, solar equipment, this will be a huge boost to demand growth next year. Therefore research reported that, in 2020 the domestic market will probably complete 50 gw of installed, rallied 70% year-on-year.

and overseas, as more market into the gw, even considering the demand fall, South America and parts of Asia as a whole will also keep 10% growth, total installed is likely to be more than 100 gw.

so research report is expected in 2020, the global market demand growth or to reach 26%, compared with 20% growth in 2019 to further improve.

next year price movements for industry competition pattern of each plate after capacity expansion, China solar energy network, cicc research thinks, photovoltaic glass and silicon material in the next quarter 1 and 4 quarter may have rise in price; PERC battery, the current enterprise expansion relatively cautious, so price relative stabilization of next year, will only with the silicon price changes; Monocrystalline silicon slice because new entrants flood and lower costs will drop in prices began to appear in the second quarter.

cicc research thinks, the logic of photovoltaic (pv) in the second half will continue to continue next year, more bullish prices don't fall of photovoltaic glass, silicon, EVA film, such as plate, for other parts, poor market expectations but also bring rebound opportunities for leading enterprises.

for market risk, research should focus on several aspects to think, whether a domestic parity is distributed project needs more than expected, 2 it is to should be alert to the overseas market demand less than expected, the third is part of link capacity expansion faster than expected, solar power network, four is outdated capacity off as fast as expected, etc.